Many discussions about health, wellness, illnesses and treatments include mention of risks. A risk is defined as a threat of loss to that which we value, real or perceived. The Oxford English Dictionary defines it as a situation that could be dangerous or have a bad outcome, or the possibility that something unpleasant will happen. A simpler definition is that the risk of something happening is the chance of it taking place. It has been a topic of several presentations at medical conferences on women’s health in the past year, no doubt due to the constant debate of benefits versus risks of menopausal hormone therapy. One of the best presentations pointed out perception versus reality and how risks of medical treatments compare to every day risks that people take without thinking about it. The same academic stated that the population in general developed a cancer phobia once we could measure concentrations of substances in the parts-per-billion range.
Many of us lack an in-depth knowledge of statistics. It is fascinating and frightening how various ways of stating information statistically can be used to support or refute ideas or theories. An example is the use of relative risk and absolute risk. An absolute risk is the actual number of people affected by an outcome, for example 6 out of 10,000 people. If a trial is done that shows now 8 out of 10,000 people are affected by whatever, that is an increased relative risk of 33% even though only 0.08% of participants had the outcome. Relative risk compares the risks with and without what is being tested.
In general, risks are calculated on the best available data. Any assessment of an individual’s risk of any given ailment or condition is usually based upon a model that was developed from cases that have gone before. It must be kept in mind when discussing risks, that they are not cast in stone. Day-to day life is full of risks that we either ignore or are unaware of. Avoidance of known or suspected risks is no guarantee that you will live your life disease- or cancer-free. Life is not like that.